Opponent-draw forensics
The schedule
had favorites.
Actual regular-season records compared with the result each scoring profile would expect against every team, every week.
2017–2025Regular-season comparisonsPublic-safe snapshot
Snapshot 2026-07-13T21:25:16-04:00Schedule luck is conditional on scoring. Positive means the opponent draw produced more wins than weekly all-play expected wins. It does not prove randomness, skill, or destiny.
Career board
Who the schedule helped—and hurt
Ranked by opponent-draw wins per season; percentages remain weighted by games.
Career merchant
Ethan+1.13 wins/season
96 regular-season games
Career snakebitten
Carter-0.79 wins/season
109 regular-season games
Single-season high
Baylor+3.44 wins
2017 · Michael Bennet Is My Hero
Single-season low
Cloudy-5.33 wins
2022 · My Digg Hurts
| Rank | Boss | Games | Actual W% | All-play W% | Luck / year | Expected record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | Ethan | 96 | 50% | 41.8% | +1.13 wins/yr | 40.1–55.9 |
| 2nd | Baylor | 52 | 57.7% | 50.2% | +0.97 wins/yr | 26.1–25.9 |
| 3rd | samuel | 52 | 55.8% | 50% | +0.75 wins/yr | 26–26 |
| 4th | Chris | 122 | 58.2% | 53.6% | +0.63 wins/yr | 65.3–56.7 |
| 5th | Mikey | 70 | 52.9% | 50.5% | +0.33 wins/yr | 35.3–34.7 |
| 6th | Justin | 122 | 61.5% | 59.1% | +0.32 wins/yr | 72.1–49.9 |
| 7th | Eli | 122 | 48.4% | 49.6% | -0.17 wins/yr | 60.6–61.4 |
| 8th | Cloudy | 70 | 57.1% | 58.4% | -0.18 wins/yr | 40.9–29.1 |
| 9th | Connor | 26 | 46.2% | 47.9% | -0.22 wins/yr | 12.4–13.6 |
| 10th | Russell | 122 | 49.2% | 51.4% | -0.3 wins/yr | 62.7–59.3 |
| 11th | Nolan | 122 | 39.3% | 43.7% | -0.59 wins/yr | 53.3–68.7 |
| 12th | Wills | 122 | 40.2% | 45.4% | -0.72 wins/yr | 55.4–66.6 |
| 13th | Carter | 109 | 42.2% | 48% | -0.79 wins/yr | 52.3–56.7 |
| 14th | Wade | 13 | 46.2% | 56.4% | -1.33 wins/yr | 7.3–5.7 |
Season extremes
The loudest schedule effects
The 24 biggest absolute gaps between actual wins and all-play expected wins.
| Year | Boss / team | W–L | PF rank | All-play | Luck wins | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Cloudy | 5–9 | 1st | 73.8% | -5.33 | 9th |
| 2023 | Eli | 1–13 | 9th | 34.9% | -3.89 | 10th |
| 2017 | Baylor | 12–1 | 1st | 65.8% | +3.44 | 1st |
| 2020 | Carter | 4–9 | 2nd | 57.3% | -3.44 | 9th |
| 2025 | Carter | 2–12 | 8th | 38.9% | -3.44 | 10th |
| 2022 | Justin | 12–2 | 2nd | 61.9% | +3.33 | 4th |
| 2020 | Ethan | 6–7 | 10th | 23.1% | +3 | 10th |
| 2024 | Russell | 4–10 | 5th | 49.2% | -2.89 | 9th |
| 2022 | Chris | 8–6 | 10th | 37.3% | +2.78 | 1st |
| 2021 | Cloudy | 9–5 | 6th | 46% | +2.56 | 5th |
| 2017 | Justin | 4–9 | 7th | 49.6% | -2.44 | 7th |
| 2019 | Chris | 6–7 | 2nd | 65% | -2.44 | 8th |
| 2024 | Mikey | 9–5 | 8th | 47.6% | +2.33 | 3rd |
| 2024 | Ethan | 9–5 | 6th | 47.6% | +2.33 | 6th |
| 2024 | Wills | 1–13 | 10th | 23.8% | -2.33 | 8th |
| 2017 | Chris | 9–4 | 2nd | 52.1% | +2.22 | 4th |
| 2024 | Eli | 7–7 | 3rd | 65.9% | -2.22 | 5th |
| 2020 | Eli | 8–5 | 9th | 45.3% | +2.11 | 2nd |
| 2020 | samuel | 9–4 | 3rd | 53% | +2.11 | 5th |
| 2020 | Wills | 4–9 | 6th | 47% | -2.11 | 7th |
| 2024 | Chris | 9–5 | 4th | 49.2% | +2.11 | 4th |
| 2025 | Eli | 8–6 | 9th | 42.1% | +2.11 | 6th |
| 2020 | Nolan | 5–8 | 5th | 53% | -1.89 | 8th |
| 2021 | Russell | 7–7 | 3rd | 63.5% | -1.89 | 2nd |